Title

Probabilistic Estimation of Water Conservation Effectiveness

Document Type

Article

Journal/Book Title/Conference

Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management

Volume

133

Issue

1

Publisher

American Society of Civil Engineers

Publication Date

2007

First Page

39

Last Page

49

DOI

10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(2007)133:1(39)

Abstract

An analytical method is derived to describe the distribution of water quantity saved among customers within a water-use sector who adopt a water conservation action. Analytical results tend toward lognormal distributions with long tails, quantifying a smaller subset of customers that show potential to achieve large savings. Example effectiveness distributions are shown for seven long-term conservation actions potentially implemented by urban, domestic water users in Amman, Jordan. Monte Carlo simulations verify the analytical derivations. The probabilistic outputs contrast with common methods that estimate conservation action effectiveness as a product of typical (average) characteristics for disaggregated customer groups. Implications to size water conservation programs to meet conservation objectives and target customers to adopt conservation actions are discussed.

Comments

Originally published by the American Society of Civil Engineers. Publisher's PDF and HTML fulltext available through remote link.
Note: David Rosenberg was affiliated with the University of California - Davis at time of publication.

Recommended Citation

David Rosenberg (2007) “Probabilistic Estimation of Water Conservation Effectiveness.” Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management. 133 (1), pp. 39-49.