Event Title

Is ENSO prediction getting easier?

Location

Eccles Conference Center

Event Website

http://water.usu.edu

Start Date

1-4-2014 4:05 PM

End Date

1-4-2014 4:10 PM

Description

Using multiple observational and model datasets, we document a strengthening relationship between boreal winter sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the western North Pacific (WNP) and the development of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the following year. The increased WNP-ENSO association emerged in the mid 20th century and has grown through the present, reaching correlation coefficients as high as ~0.70 in recent decades. Fully coupled climate experiments with the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) replicate the WNP-ENSO association and indicate that greenhouse gases (GHG) are largely responsible for this observed increase. We speculate that shifts in the location of the largest positive SST trends between the subtropical and tropical western Pacific impacts the low-level circulation in a manner that reinforces the link between the WNP and the development of ENSO. A strengthened GHG-driven relationship with the WNP provides an example of how anthropogenic climate change may directly influence one of the most prominent patterns of natural climate variability, ENSO, and potentially improve the skill of intraseasonal-to-interannual climate prediction.

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Apr 1st, 4:05 PM Apr 1st, 4:10 PM

Is ENSO prediction getting easier?

Eccles Conference Center

Using multiple observational and model datasets, we document a strengthening relationship between boreal winter sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the western North Pacific (WNP) and the development of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the following year. The increased WNP-ENSO association emerged in the mid 20th century and has grown through the present, reaching correlation coefficients as high as ~0.70 in recent decades. Fully coupled climate experiments with the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) replicate the WNP-ENSO association and indicate that greenhouse gases (GHG) are largely responsible for this observed increase. We speculate that shifts in the location of the largest positive SST trends between the subtropical and tropical western Pacific impacts the low-level circulation in a manner that reinforces the link between the WNP and the development of ENSO. A strengthened GHG-driven relationship with the WNP provides an example of how anthropogenic climate change may directly influence one of the most prominent patterns of natural climate variability, ENSO, and potentially improve the skill of intraseasonal-to-interannual climate prediction.

http://digitalcommons.usu.edu/runoff/2014/2014Posters/36