Document Type

Report

Publication Date

January 1980

Abstract

This purpose of this thesis is to present in a logical and straightforward manner, the types of probabilistic, deterministic and judgment methods which should be part f a risk analysis process for earth dam planning, design, contstuction and operation. In doing this, an attempt was made to include all of the elements (compenents of the risk analysis procedure defined herein) which were considered to be important. Descriptions of these elements as well as how they are used to estimate probabilities for the occurrence of each of three failure conditions (i.e. no failure, partial failure, complete failure) are also presented. Explanations are given as to how these failure probabilities can be used in estimating the consequences resulting from the failure of an earth dam. The potential use of the failure probabilities in conjunction with estimated conequences in decision making related to all phases of a dam project as well as land use planning near the dam are discussed. The possibility of performing a care study using the data base of Soldier Creek Dam, a project of the Water and Power Resources Service, is also presented.