Computational modeling for decision-making under climate change uncertainty: Reservoir simulation game
Almost every decision you make is under uncertainty. Will I need a rain jacket in the afternoon? Will they say yes if I ask them out? Is 1 hour enough time to finish this assignment? Oftentimes, we can use computational modeling to simulate different scenarios of what might happen in the future to inform what decisions are best on average, or what decisions minimize the worst case outcome. For example, you could decide what player to draft for your Fantasy Football team by simulating player performance. In this activity, we will simulate how much water to release from a dam based on a forecasted range of water that will flow into the dam. The goal is to keep as much water as possible in the dam to supply cities and farmers, but not too much to overtop the dam and cause a flood. Decisions like these will be more and more challenging under increasing climate variability as a consequence of climate change.
Quinn, Julianne, "Computational modeling for decision-making under climate change uncertainty: Reservoir simulation game" (2021). All ECSTATIC Materials.
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