Date of Award:


Document Type:


Degree Name:

Master of Science (MS)


Civil and Environmental Engineering


David S. Bowles


ABSTRACT: Event tree analysis is a most commonly used method in dam safety risk analysis modeling. Available software tools for performing event tree analyses lack the flexibility to efficiently address many important factors in dam safety risk analysis. As a result of these practical limitations, spreadsheets have been used, sometimes including Visual Basic macros, to perform these analyses. However, this approach lacks generality and can require significant effort to apply to a specific dam or to modify the event tree structure. In response to these limitations, here a generalized event tree analysis tool, DAMRAE (DAM safety Risk Analysis Engine), has been developed. It includes a graphical interface for developing and populating an event tree, and a tool for calculating and post-processing an event tree risk model for dam safety risk assessment in a highly flexible manner. This thesis describes the underlying theoretical and computational logic employed in the current version of DAMRAE, and provides a detailed example of the calculations in the current version of DAMRAE for an application to a US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) dam. The thesis closes with some conclusions about the capabilities of DAMRAE and a summary of plans for its further development.