Date of Award
Master of Science (MS)
Mathematics and Statistics
We explore a variety of methods to estimate phloem temperatures from ambient air temperatures suitable for the mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae. A model's ability to induce the same phenology generated from observed phloem temperatures measures its effectiveness rather than a simple reconstruction of phloem temperatures. From a model's phenology results we are able to ascertain whether the model produces a similar amount of developmental energy exhibited by observed phloem temperatures.
Three models performed best: Newton, Newton South and Matching. The Newton model uses Newton's Law of Cooling to effectively estimate northern aspect phloem temperatures. The Newton South model also employs Newton's Law of Cooling but has an additional error parameter used to predict southern aspect phloem temperatures. The Matching model uses a "reverse boot-strapping" method that matches ambient extremes to an archive of air and corresponding phloem temperatures. The archived phloem temperatures that fit best, based on how closely the air extrema match, are successfully used as predicted temperatures. Phenology generated from these models is shown to effectively mimic the phenology produced from observed phloem temperatures in a variety of geographically distinct areas.
Lewis, Matthew Jared, "Modeling Phloem Temperatures Relative to Mountain Pine Beetle Phenology" (2011). All Graduate Plan B and other Reports. 60.