Date of Award

Summer 5-1-2017

Degree Type

Report

Degree Name

Master of Science (MS)

Department

Economics and Finance

First Advisor

Tyler Brough

Second Advisor

Benjamin Blau

Third Advisor

Jason Smith

Abstract

Healthcare reform was a significant political issue during the November 2016 US general elections, and played an important role in campaigning and political discourse leading to the election. Donald Trump, the Republican presidential candidate, and Republicans running for congressional office, campaigned on a platform advocating for the repeal and replacement of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of 2010 (ACA), among other changes. Hillary Clinton, the Democratic presidential candidate, and Democrats running for congressional office, campaigned on a platform that included support for the ACA, as well as increased regulations on the pharmaceutical industry and health insurers, among various other policies. Republicans achieved unexpectedly large electoral victories. In order to determine the impact of the election results on the financial health of key firms operating in health care industries, event study techniques and multivariate regressions are used to calculate and analyze cumulative abnormal returns (CARS) surrounding different event windows surrounding the election for the various relevant firms (N=402). Abnormal returns are also calculated by industry, including pharmaceutical companies, health insurers, health care providers, and medical device manufacturers. Statistically and economically significant CARs are observed for the entire sample, as well as for drug companies, health insurers, and health care providers in the short term. Firms in the pharmaceutical industry, who faced more stringent regulation under a Clinton administration, were affected the most by the election results and generated the largest positive abnormal returns in every event window considered.

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