Document Type

Article

Journal/Book Title/Conference

Water

Volume

17

Issue

3

Publisher

MDPI AG

Publication Date

2-2-2025

Journal Article Version

Version of Record

First Page

1

Last Page

13

Creative Commons License

Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Abstract

Quantifying the water budget in the Great Salt Lake (GSL) basin is a nontrivial task, especially under a changing climate that contributes to increasing temperatures and a shift towards more rainfall and less snowfall. This study examines the potential impacts of temperature thresholds on the water budget in the GSL, emphasizing the influence on snowmelt, evapotranspiration (ET), and runoff under varying climate warming scenarios. Current hydrological models such as the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model use a universal temperature threshold to partition snowfall and rainfall across different regions. Previous studies have argued that there is a wide range of thresholds for partitioning rainfall and snowfall across the globe. However, there is a clear knowledge gap in quantifying water budget components in the Great Salt Lake (GSL) basin corresponding to varying temperature thresholds for separating rainfall and snowfall under the present and future climates. To address this gap, the study applied temperature thresholds derived from observation-based data available from National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) to the VIC model. We also performed a suite of hydrological experiments to quantify the water budget of the Great Salt Lake basin by perturbing temperature thresholds and climate forcing. The results indicate that higher temperature thresholds contribute to earlier snowmelt, reduced snowpack, and lower peak runoff values in the early spring that are likely due to increased ET before peak runoff periods. The results show that the GSL undergoes higher snow water equivalent (SWE) values during cold seasons due to snow accumulation and lower values during warm seasons as increased temperatures intensify ET. Projected climate warming may result in further reductions in SWE (~71%), increased atmospheric water demand, and significant impacts on water availability (i.e., runoff reduced by ~20%) in the GSL basin. These findings underscore the potential challenges that rising temperatures pose to regional water availability.

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