Description

The water level, or elevation, of Bear Lake has a significant impact on agriculture, power, infrastructure, and recreation for communities around the lake. Climatological variables, such as precipitation, temperature, and snowfall, all have an impact on the elevation of Bear Lake. As the climate changes due to greenhouse gas emissions, the typical behaviors of these climate variables change, leading to new behaviors in Bear Lake elevation. Because of the importance of Bear Lake, it is vital to be able to model and understand how Bear Lake's elevation may change in the face of different climate scenarios and to gain further insights into the sensitivity of Bear Lake's elevation to these changes. One tool to aid in this pursuit is the creation of interactive plots that allow a user to easily visualize the effect that different climate scenarios have on our model of Bear Lake's elevation. Therefore our project has two primary objectives. First is the modeling of Bear Lake elevation using statistical models, and state-of-the-art Neural Networks. Second is the creation of an interactive application that could be hosted online which makes accessible the results of our modeling efforts, as well as visual access to the historical climatological data. This report details our modeling efforts and a proof-of- concept for an interactive application accessible through a web browser.

Document Type

Dataset

DCMI Type

Dataset

File Format

.r, .js, .css

Viewing Instructions

See README.txt

Publication Date

6-6-2024

Funder

Utah Department of Natural Resources - Division of Forestry, Fire, and State Lands

Publisher

Utah State University

Methodology

This folder contains a dataset, models trained on this dataset, a dataset for obtaining lake elevation projections, shapefiles defining the bear lake watersheds, and an R shiny application for interactive exploration of the data and model predictions. The collected data represents a consolidation of information from the following sources: - The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) station 10055000, located at the bear lake state park marina in Garden City, Utah, operated by the USGS, the bear river commission, and the bear lake watch. (https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/dv?referred module=sw&site_no=10055000) - The USGS Watershed Boundary Dataset. (https://www.usgs.gov/national-hydrography/watershed-boundary-dataset) - PRISM climate group at Oregon state univerisry. Historical climate data (temperature and precipication). (https://prism.oregonstate.edu/recent/) - National Snow and Ice Data Center, for historical SWE measurements. (https://nsidc.org/data/NSIDC-0719/versions/1) - The Localized Constructed Analogs (LOCA-V2) dataset for future climate projections (no SWE: LOCA-VIC is used for SWE projections). (https://loca.ucsd.edu/) Models were created in python using pytorch, sklearn, and sktime. Data processing and shiny app creation were done using R Statistical Software.

Referenced by

This project was presented at the 2024 Spring runoff conference: https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/runoff/2024/all/25/

Location

Bear Lake, Utah/Idaho

Language

eng

Disciplines

Climate | Mathematics | Plant Sciences | Statistics and Probability

License

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Checksum

f26ca165a5d8ba04742fb090116f9f80

Download

Additional Files

daily.RData (5895 kB)
md5: 78a03f34ee273c43456803a69b24ad11

Daily_LOCA.RData (197527 kB)
md5: 287c9a3f1393d84b8d1c7b5bca26c428

README.txt (8 kB)
md5: e176d3ddcd1fa7415963ff927e4c6089

models.zip (797 kB)
md5: 1c56f2a94a51ffdf66ba54797845b273

shapefiles.zip (4126 kB)
md5: b85654032883aa5cc520f18c2d1773c2

shinyapp.zip (18869 kB)
md5: 8361461d77a95cf3bea81ae98e085d5c

Share

 
COinS