Aspen Bibliography

A Bayesian Belief Network advisory system for aspen regeneration

Timothy C. Haas

Document Type

Article

Journal/Book Title/Conference

Forest Science

Volume

37

Issue

2

First Page

627

Last Page

654

Publication Date

1991

Abstract

The probability-based Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) methodology is demonstrated to be an alternative to rule-based methods in forest management expert systems. Unlike a rule-based system, a BBN incorporates uncertainty in the knowledge and input data without sacrificing knowledge modularity. After reviewing the graph and probability theory needed to define a BBN as a joint distribution representable by a directed acyclic graph, an 11-variable network modeling Rocky Mountain aspen sucker density response to different management options is constructed. For a typical aspen site, the model's estimated marginal probabilities of sucker response exhibit values consistent with those expected. Finally, a BBN is shown to be fairly tolerant to small parameter errors, and a new method is given for BBN model validation. For. Sci. 37(2):627-654.

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