Document Type

Article

Journal/Book Title/Conference

Economics Research Institute Study Paper

Volume

91

Issue

1

Publisher

Utah State University Department of Economics

Publication Date

1991

Rights

Copyright for this work is held by the author. Transmission or reproduction of materials protected by copyright beyond that allowed by fair use requires the written permission of the copyright owners. Works not in the public domain cannot be commercially exploited without permission of the copyright owner. Responsibility for any use rests exclusively with the user. For more information contact the Institutional Repository Librarian at digitalcommons@usu.edu.

First Page

1

Last Page

18

Abstract

This paper develops a method for use in qualitative evaluation of forecasts. The method is based upon the traditional contingency table method, but is an improvement over both the 2 x 2 and the 4 x 4 matrices previously used in assessments of forecast turning point accuracy. The 2 x 2 matrix did not account for directional accuracy in turning points; the 4 x 4 matrix overcame that weakness, but it fails to account for no change points. An expanded 9 x 9 contingency matrix allows for complete turning point accuracy evaluation; therefore, it is better suited for forecasting applications using higher-order time-aggregated data.

Download

Share

COinS