Date of Award:

5-2000

Document Type:

Thesis

Degree Name:

Master of Science (MS)

Department:

Civil and Environmental Engineering

Committee Chair(s)

David Bowles

Committee

David Bowles

Abstract

"Estimating Life Loss for Dam Safety Risk Assessment" explores the need for a new life-loss model in dam safety risk assessment, historical foundations on which that model can be built, and issues that are critical for a successful life-loss model to address. After critiquing existing life-loss models, the work presents a summary of historical insights that were derived by characterizing flood events on the level of subpopulations at risk, using nearly 100 carefully defined variables. Building upon both conceptual and historical insights, the work culminates by presenting the conceptual basis for a new life-loss model that remains under development.

Chapter I introduces the topic of dam safety risk assessment and the central role that life-loss estimation plays in that field. Chapter II discusses important preliminary considerations in model development. Chapter Ill provides a detailed review of previous life-loss models that pertained to floods, including a critique of each. Chapter IV explores the DeKay-McClelland model in detail and raises serious concerns regarding its future use. Chapter V defines nearly 100 variables and their respective categories for use in characterizing flood events. Chapter VI provides a detailed outline of historical insights that relate to flood events in one of 18 logical categories. Chapter VII proposes the framework for a new conceptual life-loss model-a model that is still under development and has yet to be refined or offered for testing-with sufficient details to indicate how it was developed and how it might be used. Chapter VIII provides a summary, conclusions, and recommendations for future research. Appendices A through D provide material related to over 900 pages of unpublished working documents developed while characterizing 38 flood events and nearly 200 subpopulations at risk. Appendix E offers a summary of existing software that, given additional development, might prove useful to life-loss estimation in dam safety risk assessment.

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