Date of Award
Master of Science (MS)
Economics and Finance
In this study, the work of Basu 1977 is partly replicated using subsequent market data. A trading strategy of investing in assets based on their price-earnings ratio is back-tested, thus also testing the efficient market hypothesis. Market data over the past twenty-five years (1989-2014) was gathered, cleaned, and modeled to test for unexplained return to five portfolios ranked by PE ratio. The data was tested using the single-factor Capital Asset Pricing Model and the Fama-French three-factor model. The dataset was then decomposed by price and similarly modeled to test whether the effectiveness of using PE as a leading indicator is limited by the price level of an asset. I conclude that investing in a portfolio comprised of the lowest PE ratio assets yields the highest unexplained returns over the period examined. I also find that this strategy is primarily driven by low and mid-priced stocks, and does not hold at high price levels. In this analysis, the efficient market hypothesis does not hold.
Tilley, Jordan R., "Investment Performance of Common Stock in Relation to their Price-Earnings Ratios: BASU 1977 Extended Analysis" (2015). All Graduate Plan B and other Reports. 646.
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