Utah Freeze Date Prediction Utilizing Weather Station Climatology and the Climate Forecast System Model
Location
ECC 216
Event Website
http://water.usu.edu/
Start Date
4-4-2012 2:10 PM
End Date
4-4-2012 2:30 PM
Description
Utah Freeze Date Prediction utilizing weather station climatology and the Climate Forecast System Model Shih-Yu (Simon) Wang, Marty Booth, and Martin Schroeder Utah Climate Center Abstract As of the current date, there are no long-range forecasts (beyond 7 days) that can predict the first fall or latest spring freeze dates for a given location. The National Climatic Data Center has a statistical product giving a percentage of how many days in a year reach freezing temperatures and the probabilities that indicate the chances of a shorter/longer freeze-free season for each National Weather Service Cooperative Observer Program (COOP) weather station. The Utah Climate Center contains a database for each COOP weather station that shows the earliest fall and latest spring freeze dates, the average of these dates in either season, and the shortest, average, and longest freeze-free season duration in days. This research utilizes COOP weather station climatology for Utah and the Maurer et. al. gridded data set. The departures of each year’s monthly average minimum temperature around the average first fall and average latest spring freeze dates from the 40-year average (1971-2010) were calculated from both COOP weather stations in Utah and the closest Maurer et. al. grid point. These departures from the 40-year average were used to correct the average freeze dates calculated from the Maurer et. al. gridded data set. A statistical model was created that correlates the departures of the average monthly minimum temperatures for each year (1971-2010) around the average freeze date from the 40-year average of these monthly average minimum temperatures of representative COOP weather stations and the average freeze date for each year. The National Centers for Environmental Predication’s (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS) model output minimum temperatures were used for grid points covering Utah to find the departures of their average monthly minimum temperatures for each year (1971-2010) around the average freeze dates from the 40-year average of the monthly average minimum temperatures for each grid point. A statistical model was created for each COOP weather station and the nearest corresponding CFS grid point to show the correlation of the difference of their monthly average minimum temperatures with their 40-year averages. A predictive tool was developed from the combination of these two statistical models to forecast the first fall freeze date for select locations in the state of Utah.
Utah Freeze Date Prediction Utilizing Weather Station Climatology and the Climate Forecast System Model
ECC 216
Utah Freeze Date Prediction utilizing weather station climatology and the Climate Forecast System Model Shih-Yu (Simon) Wang, Marty Booth, and Martin Schroeder Utah Climate Center Abstract As of the current date, there are no long-range forecasts (beyond 7 days) that can predict the first fall or latest spring freeze dates for a given location. The National Climatic Data Center has a statistical product giving a percentage of how many days in a year reach freezing temperatures and the probabilities that indicate the chances of a shorter/longer freeze-free season for each National Weather Service Cooperative Observer Program (COOP) weather station. The Utah Climate Center contains a database for each COOP weather station that shows the earliest fall and latest spring freeze dates, the average of these dates in either season, and the shortest, average, and longest freeze-free season duration in days. This research utilizes COOP weather station climatology for Utah and the Maurer et. al. gridded data set. The departures of each year’s monthly average minimum temperature around the average first fall and average latest spring freeze dates from the 40-year average (1971-2010) were calculated from both COOP weather stations in Utah and the closest Maurer et. al. grid point. These departures from the 40-year average were used to correct the average freeze dates calculated from the Maurer et. al. gridded data set. A statistical model was created that correlates the departures of the average monthly minimum temperatures for each year (1971-2010) around the average freeze date from the 40-year average of these monthly average minimum temperatures of representative COOP weather stations and the average freeze date for each year. The National Centers for Environmental Predication’s (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS) model output minimum temperatures were used for grid points covering Utah to find the departures of their average monthly minimum temperatures for each year (1971-2010) around the average freeze dates from the 40-year average of the monthly average minimum temperatures for each grid point. A statistical model was created for each COOP weather station and the nearest corresponding CFS grid point to show the correlation of the difference of their monthly average minimum temperatures with their 40-year averages. A predictive tool was developed from the combination of these two statistical models to forecast the first fall freeze date for select locations in the state of Utah.
https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/runoff/2012/AllAbstracts/56