Document Type
Article
Author ORCID Identifier
Patrik Nosil https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8271-9005
Clarissa F. de Carvalho https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5780-5454
Romain Villoutreix https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1815-3844
Laura S. Zamorano https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8396-0482
Marion Sinclair-Waters https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7371-4547
Nicholas P. Planidin https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4182-0841
Thomas L. Parchman https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1771-1514
Jeffrey Feder https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8797-980X
Zach Gompert https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2248-2488
Journal/Book Title/Conference
Science Advances
Volume
10
Issue
21
Publisher
American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Publication Date
5-24-2024
Journal Article Version
Version of Record
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
First Page
1
Last Page
20
Abstract
The extent to which evolution is repeatable remains debated. Here, we study changes over time in the frequency of cryptic color-pattern morphs in 10 replicate long-term field studies of a stick insect, each spanning at least a decade (across 30 years of total data). We find predictable “up-and-down” fluctuations in stripe frequency in all populations, representing repeatable evolutionary dynamics based on standing genetic variation. A field experiment demonstrates that these fluctuations involve negative frequency-dependent natural selection (NFDS). These fluctuations rely on demographic and selective variability that pushes populations away from equilibrium, such that they can reliably move back toward it via NFDS. Last, we show that the origin of new cryptic forms is associated with multiple structural genomic variants such that which mutations arise affects evolution at larger temporal scales. Thus, evolution from existing variation is predictable and repeatable, but mutation adds complexity even for traits evolving deterministically under natural selection.
Recommended Citation
Patrik Nosil et al. ,Evolution repeats itself in replicate long-term studies in the wild. Sci. Adv. 10, eadl3149 (2024). DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adl3149
