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Economics Research Institute Study Paper




Utah State University Department of Economics

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Forest management around the globe has been discussed and emphasized as one of the practical environmental protection policies. The Kyoto protocol proposed that promotion of sustainable forest management through afforestation and reforestation will increase the potential carbon sink of forest and thus ameliorate the accumulation of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. In this sense, in order not only to improve the predictive power of forest management but also to measure the precise carbon flux of forest in the global scale, we want to identify the feedback effect of the global timber market on global warming. For this purpose, we already identified the effect of global warming on the global timber market as a primary step (Lee and Lyon, 2001). Based on the simulation results of primary research, we extended our modeling framework by incorporating the Terrestrial Carbon Model designed to investigate the net carbon release into the atmosphere. Simulating both the base TCM and the modified TCM which reflects climate change, we identified the global timber market has a dampening (negative feedback) effect on global warming. For sensitivity analyses, we performed these simulation procedures under three different timber demand growth scenarios.