Economics Research Institute Study Paper
Utah State University Department of Economics
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This paper develops a method for use in qualitative evaluation of forecasts. The method is based upon the traditional contingency table method, but is an improvement over both the 2 x 2 and the 4 x 4 matrices previously used in assessments of forecast turning point accuracy. The 2 x 2 matrix did not account for directional accuracy in turning points; the 4 x 4 matrix overcame that weakness, but it fails to account for no change points. An expanded 9 x 9 contingency matrix allows for complete turning point accuracy evaluation; therefore, it is better suited for forecasting applications using higher-order time-aggregated data.
Skaggs, Rhonda K. and Snyder, Donald L., "A Note on Evaluation of Turning Point Accuracy" (1991). Economic Research Institute Study Papers. Paper 3.