Date of Award:


Document Type:


Degree Name:

Master of Science (MS)


Mathematics and Statistics

Department name when degree awarded

Applied Statistics


Rex Hurst


Donald Sisson


The survival of our nation, during a nuclear exchange, depends upon an effective national defense structure. The prime weapon system in this defense structure is the ballistic missile. Although many factors enter into an evaluation of the effectiveness of a ballistic missile, one of the most important measure is accuracy. Without an accurate weapon system we have no weapon system.

The Department of Defense has places emphasis on using a method of accuracy evaluation called "Probably Circular Error (CEP)." Probably Circular Error is defined as "The radius of a circle, centered at the intended target, within which 50% of the missiles would be expected to impact" or "The probability is 0.50 that an individual missile will impact within a circle whose radius is equal to the CEP." The statistical techniques and assumptions used in generation a CEP value will be investigated.