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Climate Dynamics

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During 13-17 June 2013, heavy rainfall occurred in the northern Indian state of 15 Uttarakhand and led to one of the worst floods in history and massive landslides, 16 resulting in more than 5,000 casualties and a huge loss of property. In this study, 17 meteorological and climatic conditions leading up to this rainfall event in 2013 and 18 similar cases were analyzed for the period of 1979-2012. Attribution analysis was 19 performed to identify the natural and anthropogenic influences on the climate anomalies 20 using the historical single-forcing experiments in the Coupled Model Intercomparison 21 Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). In addition, regional modeling experiments were carried out to 22 quantify the role of the long-term climate trends in affecting the rainfall magnitude of the 23 June 2013 event. It was found that (a) northern India has experienced increasingly large 24 rainfall in June since the late 1980s, (b) the increase in rainfall appears to be associated 25 with a tendency in the upper troposphere towards amplified short waves, and (c) the 26 phasing of such amplified short waves is tied with increased green-house gases (GHGs) 27 and aerosols. In addition, a regional modeling diagnosis attributed 60-90% of rainfall 28 amounts in the June 2013 event to post-1980 climate trends.

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