Event Title

Pakistan's two-stage monsoon, the 2010 floods, and the recent climate change

Presenter Information

S-Y Simon Wang

Location

Eccles Conference Center

Event Website

http://water.usu.edu/

Start Date

3-30-2011 10:20 AM

End Date

3-30-2011 10:40 AM

Description

Meteorological conditions related to the Pakistan floods of 2010 were examined in the context of monsoon dynamics and large-scale circulations. Case and climatological analyses suggest that summer precipitation in northern Pakistan comprises two distinct phases: a) a pre-monsoon trough phase (July) whose rainfall is more episodic and intense, occurring prior to arrival of the monsoon trough; and b) a monsoon trough phase (August) whose rainfall is persistent, yet less episodic, driven by northward migration of the monsoon trough. Analyses of conditional instability, moisture flux, and circulation features support a persistent increase in conditional instability during the July pre-monsoon trough phase, accompanied by increased frequency of heavy rainfall events. Conversely, evidence does not support intensification of the August monsoon trough phase. The increased convective activity during the pre-monsoon trough phase agrees with the projected increase in the intensity of heavy rainfall events over northern Pakistan. Large-scale circulation analysis reveals a cyclonic anomaly over and to the west of Pakistan - a feature empirically associated with weak monsoon. The analysis also suggests that the anomalous circulation in 2010 is not sporadic but rather is part of a long term trend that defies the typical linkage between the Pakistan monsoon and the upper-level circulations.

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Mar 30th, 10:20 AM Mar 30th, 10:40 AM

Pakistan's two-stage monsoon, the 2010 floods, and the recent climate change

Eccles Conference Center

Meteorological conditions related to the Pakistan floods of 2010 were examined in the context of monsoon dynamics and large-scale circulations. Case and climatological analyses suggest that summer precipitation in northern Pakistan comprises two distinct phases: a) a pre-monsoon trough phase (July) whose rainfall is more episodic and intense, occurring prior to arrival of the monsoon trough; and b) a monsoon trough phase (August) whose rainfall is persistent, yet less episodic, driven by northward migration of the monsoon trough. Analyses of conditional instability, moisture flux, and circulation features support a persistent increase in conditional instability during the July pre-monsoon trough phase, accompanied by increased frequency of heavy rainfall events. Conversely, evidence does not support intensification of the August monsoon trough phase. The increased convective activity during the pre-monsoon trough phase agrees with the projected increase in the intensity of heavy rainfall events over northern Pakistan. Large-scale circulation analysis reveals a cyclonic anomaly over and to the west of Pakistan - a feature empirically associated with weak monsoon. The analysis also suggests that the anomalous circulation in 2010 is not sporadic but rather is part of a long term trend that defies the typical linkage between the Pakistan monsoon and the upper-level circulations.

https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/runoff/2011/AllAbstracts/18