Event Title

Incorporating NCEP weather and climate predictions into operational ensample streamflow forecasts for the Colorado River Basin

Presenter Information

Michelle Schmidt
David Streubel
Andy Wood

Location

Eccles Conference Center

Event Website

http://water.usu.edu/

Start Date

3-29-2011 3:20 PM

End Date

3-29-2011 3:40 PM

Description

For much of its history, the National Weather Service (NWS) River Forecast Centers (RFCs) have produced operational deterministic short-range streamflow forecasts designed to help communities anticipate and manage flooding. For longer lead times, RFCs have produced probabilistic hydrologic predictions to support water and energy management, but these have made little use of real-time climate forecast information. Answering a call to "complete the forecast" at the short range by adding uncertainty estimates, the NWS has developed an approach for integrating weather to climate scale ensemble forecasts from a frozen version of the current NCEP GFS model and from the NCEP CFS model into the NWS Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) approach. At the Colorado Basin RFC, experimental ensemble forecasts using the new weather and climate forecasts are now being generated on a daily basis. The new NWS approach has the potential not only to improve water management at seasonal range, but also to change the paradigm for NWS forecasting at flood time scales. This presentation describes these advances and also summarizes related activities to improve statistical water supply forecasting and coordination between agencies.

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Mar 29th, 3:20 PM Mar 29th, 3:40 PM

Incorporating NCEP weather and climate predictions into operational ensample streamflow forecasts for the Colorado River Basin

Eccles Conference Center

For much of its history, the National Weather Service (NWS) River Forecast Centers (RFCs) have produced operational deterministic short-range streamflow forecasts designed to help communities anticipate and manage flooding. For longer lead times, RFCs have produced probabilistic hydrologic predictions to support water and energy management, but these have made little use of real-time climate forecast information. Answering a call to "complete the forecast" at the short range by adding uncertainty estimates, the NWS has developed an approach for integrating weather to climate scale ensemble forecasts from a frozen version of the current NCEP GFS model and from the NCEP CFS model into the NWS Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) approach. At the Colorado Basin RFC, experimental ensemble forecasts using the new weather and climate forecasts are now being generated on a daily basis. The new NWS approach has the potential not only to improve water management at seasonal range, but also to change the paradigm for NWS forecasting at flood time scales. This presentation describes these advances and also summarizes related activities to improve statistical water supply forecasting and coordination between agencies.

https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/runoff/2011/AllAbstracts/24