Event Title

Long-range prediction of winter prolonged inversions

Location

Eccles Conference Center

Event Website

http://water.usu.edu

Start Date

4-1-2014 10:40 AM

End Date

4-1-2014 11:00 AM

Description

The Utah Climate Center has since 2010 started to forecast persistent inversion events for northern Utah. The authors found a substantive linkage between the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) and the development of persistent inversion events. Given that the NCEP’s Climate Forecast System (CFS) has demonstrated skill in the prediction of the ISO as far out as one month, it was decided to examine the CFS forecasts capability in the prediction of such winter persistent inversions. Following our initial analysis, we propose a simple regression scheme that is coupled to the CFS output of geopotential height as a way to predict the occurrence of persistent inversion events for Salt Lake City, Utah. Analysis of the CFS hindcasts through the period 1981-2008 indicates that the regression coupled with the CFS can predict persistent inversion events with lead times of up to four weeks. The adoption of this coupled regression-CFS prediction may improve the forecasting of persistent inversion events in the Intermountain West that is currently limited to the more limited time span (~10 day) of medium-range weather forecast models. New findings about climate change impact on winter inversions are also reported.

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Apr 1st, 10:40 AM Apr 1st, 11:00 AM

Long-range prediction of winter prolonged inversions

Eccles Conference Center

The Utah Climate Center has since 2010 started to forecast persistent inversion events for northern Utah. The authors found a substantive linkage between the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) and the development of persistent inversion events. Given that the NCEP’s Climate Forecast System (CFS) has demonstrated skill in the prediction of the ISO as far out as one month, it was decided to examine the CFS forecasts capability in the prediction of such winter persistent inversions. Following our initial analysis, we propose a simple regression scheme that is coupled to the CFS output of geopotential height as a way to predict the occurrence of persistent inversion events for Salt Lake City, Utah. Analysis of the CFS hindcasts through the period 1981-2008 indicates that the regression coupled with the CFS can predict persistent inversion events with lead times of up to four weeks. The adoption of this coupled regression-CFS prediction may improve the forecasting of persistent inversion events in the Intermountain West that is currently limited to the more limited time span (~10 day) of medium-range weather forecast models. New findings about climate change impact on winter inversions are also reported.

https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/runoff/2014/2014Abstracts/24