Trends in the Accuracy of USDA Production Forecasts for Beef and Pork

Document Type

Article

Journal/Book Title/Conference

Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics

Volume

23

Publication Date

1998

First Page

515

Last Page

525

Abstract

Trends in the accuracy of USDA forecasts of beef and pork production and supply are evaluated for the period 1982-96. Findings of the study show that USDA forecasts underestimated production and supply in the 1980s, but this bias has now disappeared. The variance of forecasts also has declined. Thus the accuracy of the forecasts has improved. The most recent USDA forecasts were found to meet the criteria of optimal forecasts, while those of the 1980s were not optimal.

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