Trends in the Accuracy of USDA Production Forecasts for Beef and Pork
Document Type
Article
Journal/Book Title/Conference
Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics
Volume
23
Publication Date
1998
First Page
515
Last Page
525
Abstract
Trends in the accuracy of USDA forecasts of beef and pork production and supply are evaluated for the period 1982-96. Findings of the study show that USDA forecasts underestimated production and supply in the 1980s, but this bias has now disappeared. The variance of forecasts also has declined. Thus the accuracy of the forecasts has improved. The most recent USDA forecasts were found to meet the criteria of optimal forecasts, while those of the 1980s were not optimal.
Recommended Citation
Bailey, DeeVon, and B. Wade Brorsen. Trends in the Accuracy of USDA Production Forecasts for Beef and Pork. Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 23(December 1998):515-25.