Document Type

Report

Publication Date

January 1994

Abstract

Low frequency (interannual or longer period) climatic variability is of interest bacause of its sugnificance for the understanding and prediction of protracted climatic anomalies. Closed basin lakes are sensitive to long term climatic fluctuations and integrate out high frequency variability. It is thus natural to examine the records of such lakes to better understand long term climate dynamics. Here we use Singular Spectral Analysis (SSA) and Multi-Taper Spectral Analysis (MTM) to analyze the time series of Great Slat Lake (GSL) monthly volume changes from 1848-1992, and monthly precipitation, temperature and streamflow for nearby stations with 74 or more years of data. This analysis reveals high fractional variance in 15-18, 10-12, 3-7 and 2 year frequency bands, which seem to be consistent across time series. The putative decadal and interdecadal signals appear to be related to large scale climate signals discussed recently. The interannual signals are consistent with El Nino Souther Oscillation (ENSO) and quasi-biennial variability identified by others. Propects for improved prediction of the GSL volume and of protreacted wet/dry periods in the Western United States are discussed.