Aspen Bibliography
Document Type
Article
Author ORCID Identifier
Guy Larocque https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9504-4222
Thomas Schiks https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2668-9910
Journal/Book Title/Conference
Forests
Volume
15
Issue
8
Publisher
MDPI AG
First Page
1
Last Page
23
Publication Date
8-13-2024
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Abstract
The effect of climate change on forest dynamics is likely to increase in importance in the forthcoming decades. For this reason, it is essential to predict the extent to which changes in temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric CO2 might affect the development of forest ecosystems and successional pathways. The gap model ZELIG-CFS was used to simulate the potential long-term effects of climate change on species-specific annual change in mean basal area and stand density under two scenarios of representative concentration pathways (RCP), 4.5 and 8.5, for the boreal forest region of Ontario, Canada, where mean temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric CO2 are expected to increase. Forest ecosystems in this boreal region included pure and mixed stands of black spruce (Picea mariana [Mill] B.S.P.] Paper birch (Betula papyrifera Marsh.), balsam fire (Abies balsamea [L.] Mill.), jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb.), trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.), white spruce (Picea glauca [Moench] Voss), northern white cedar (Thuja occidentalis L.), American larch (Larix laricina [Du Roi] K. Koch), and balsam poplar (Populus balsamifera L.). Simulation results under climate change generally predicted a decline in the basal area and stand density for black spruce, balsam fir, jack pine, and white spruce, but an increase for paper birch, trembling aspen, American larch, and balsam poplar. However, the extent of change differed regionally among species. Forest composition is expected to change over the long term. Simulation results indicated that shade-intolerant deciduous and conifer species will increase their dominance over the 100-year time horizon. This transition toward the increasing presence of deciduous forests is likely explained by more favorable temperature conditions for their growth and development.
Recommended Citation
Larocque, G.R.; Bell, F.W.; Searle, E.B.; Mayor, S.J.; Schiks, T.; Kalantari, P. Simulating the Long-Term Response of Forest Succession to Climate Change in the Boreal Forest of Northern Ontario, Canada. Forests 2024, 15, 1417. https://doi.org/10.3390/f15081417
Included in
Agriculture Commons, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Commons, Forest Sciences Commons, Genetics and Genomics Commons, Plant Sciences Commons
