Document Type

Unpublished Paper

Publication Date

2-27-2026

First Page

1

Last Page

4

Abstract

Lake Powell and Lake Mead are at risk of drawdown to their minimum power and dead pools in the next few years because current and proposed shortage and release operations tied to reservoir storage and sometimes prior natural flow cannot keep pace with U.S. Bureau of Reclamation’s numerous scenarios of more volatile, declining, and longer-lasting periods of low flows. One experimental program to reduce risk can instead adapt reservoir releases to monitored changes in physical reservoir inflow and reservoir evaporation. First, stabilize reservoir storage by temporarily setting reservoir release to the physical reservoir inflow minus evaporation (the available water). Second, continue to stabilize storage by changing releases to match changes in physical reservoir inflow and evaporation. Third, build storage by decreasing releases from the release needed to stabilize reservoir storage. An experimental program has additional wins such as it can begin immediately or at any target reservoir elevation without the need for new agreements. A program can also stabilize and build reservoir storage even when low flows persist. Users who hold back some of their share of reservoir releases for later release can customize and adapt their strategies to manage future risks of water shortages. An experimental risk management program can help build operational experience and flexibility in a new era of low reservoir storage, volatile, declining, and longer-lasting low flows. We share links to further explore some of our new risk communication and adaptive management tools.

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