Document Type
Article
Author ORCID Identifier
Kartik Saini https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9790-4641
Khaznah Alshammari https://orcid.org/0009-0005-4435-9642
Shah Muhammad Hamdi https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9303-7835
Soukaina Filali Boubrahimi https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5693-6383
Journal/Book Title/Conference
Universe
Volume
10
Issue
6
Publisher
MDPI AG
Publication Date
5-24-2024
Journal Article Version
Version of Record
First Page
1
Last Page
16
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Abstract
Solar flares are characterized by sudden bursts of electromagnetic radiation from the Sun’s surface, and are caused by the changes in magnetic field states in active solar regions. Earth and its surrounding space environment can suffer from various negative impacts caused by solar flares, ranging from electronic communication disruption to radiation exposure-based health risks to astronauts. In this paper, we address the solar flare prediction problem from magnetic field parameter-based multivariate time series (MVTS) data using multiple state-of-the-art machine learning classifiers that include MINImally RandOm Convolutional KErnel Transform (MiniRocket), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Canonical Interval Forest (CIF), Multiple Representations Sequence Learner (Mr-SEQL), and a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)-based deep learning model. Our experiment is conducted on the Space Weather Analytics for Solar Flares (SWAN-SF) benchmark data set, which is a partitioned collection of MVTS data of active region magnetic field parameters spanning over nine years of operation of the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). The MVTS instances of the SWAN-SF dataset are labeled by GOES X-ray flux-based flare class labels, and attributed to extreme class imbalance because of the rarity of the major flaring events (e.g., X and M). As a performance validation metric in this class-imbalanced dataset, we used the True Skill Statistic (TSS) score. Finally, we demonstrate the advantages of the MVTS learning algorithm MiniRocket, which outperformed the aforementioned classifiers without the need for essential data preprocessing steps such as normalization, statistical summarization, and class imbalance handling heuristics.
Recommended Citation
Saini, K.; Alshammari, K.; Hamdi, S.M.; Filali Boubrahimi, S. Classification of Major Solar Flares from Extremely Imbalanced Multivariate Time Series Data Using Minimally Random Convolutional Kernel Transform. Universe 2024, 10, 234. https://doi.org/10.3390/universe10060234
