Date of Award:

5-1970

Document Type:

Thesis

Degree Name:

Master of Science (MS)

Department:

Economics and Finance

Committee Chair(s)

Allen D. LeBaron

Committee

Allen D. LeBaron

Committee

Rodger Sedjo

Committee

Reed R. Durtschi

Abstract

Domestic demand for Iranian agricultural food commodities was projected for 1970, 1975 and 1980. Demand for particular commodities was projected separately for Tehran (the capital city), urban Iran and rural Iran.

Income and population growth were the most significant explanatory variables in this long term projection.

Two cross-sectional family budget surveys, taken six years apart, provided consumption data for Tehran and urban Iran. A series of family budget studies provided Engel curve data for rural Iran.

The income effect was estimated for each food item by least squares regression analysis. The resulting income elasticities were found to be significantly different from those published by the Iranian Central Bank.

The income elasticities were adjusted for the quality effect and expected changes in the market margin.

Demand for a few major products was projected for the forecast years via a disaggregated model developed in this paper and a traditional aggregate model. The disaggregated model projected demand at levels six to twelve percent above the aggregate model. This difference is apparent due to the unequal distribution of income accounted for by the disaggregate model.

Demand for all food products was projected by the traditional method. Various conversion factors were employed to translate results into farmgate demand for basic crop and livestock products.

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