Date of Award:

5-2016

Document Type:

Thesis

Degree Name:

Master of Science (MS)

Department:

Civil and Environmental Engineering

Committee Chair(s)

Jagath J. Kaluarachchi

Committee

Jagath J. Kaluarachchi

Committee

Mac McKee

Committee

Thomas Lachmar

Abstract

Water shortage is a crucial concern in the semi-arid areas that have relatively low precipitation. Given the current situation in semi-arid areas where the water supply
already does not meet the water demand, climate change is one of the important factors that is expected to exacerbate the water shortage problem and make the situation even worse in the future. There are many indicators that prove climate change is happening, like the increasing land temperature, sea level rise and decreasing snow cover. Therefore, studying climate change impacts is a vital issue, especially its impacts on water resources systems.

In this research, we used a probabilistic approach to study climate change impacts on agricultural water in the Sevier River Basin, Utah. The used approach begins with identifying the basin sensitivity to climate change, and then using the projected temperature and precipitation from climate models to estimate the future agricultural
water shortage.

The results of this research indicated that the Sevier River Basin system is very sensitive to precipitation and temperature changes, and consequently, to climate change. The basin’s natural water supply is expected to increase as a result of future precipitation. In addition, the agricultural water demand is expected to increase due to rising temperature. It is indicated also that the basin will have a high risk probability of having agricultural water shortage in the period 2025-2049 and 2075-2099.

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