Date of Award:

8-2024

Document Type:

Thesis

Degree Name:

Master of Science (MS)

Department:

Mathematics and Statistics

Committee Chair(s)

Brennan Bean

Committee

Brennan Bean

Committee

Yan Sun

Committee

Dan Coster

Abstract

Reliability target loads refer to the amount of accumulated snow a roof needs to be able to support to ensure that the probability of collapse is sufficiently low. Since ground snow weight, or load, is much easier to measure than roof snow load, models for roof snow loads rely on ground snow load measurements along with a statistical model that estimates roof snow retention as a ratio of the measured ground snow load. This thesis focuses on improving the roof snow retention model using data from Canadian case studies that include information about building geometry and local wind speeds. This information is used to create new statistical models for predicting roof snow retention. Modeling finds that adding building information improves our predictions of roof snow retention, even without using weather information, but using building and weather information together creates the largest improvements in predictions. Additionally, using estimated weather information from gridded maps of historical wind speeds does not improve predictions of roof snow retention, which suggests that weather needs to be specifically measured rather than estimated to be useful in predicting roof snow retention.

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