Date of Award

8-2026

Degree Type

Report

Degree Name

Master of Science (MS)

Department

Applied Economics

Committee Chair(s)

Ryan Larsen (Committee Chair)

Committee

Ryan Larsen

Committee

Ryan Feuz

Committee

Eric Thacker

Committee

David Secrist

Abstract

Drought is a persistent concern in the western United States, often leading to reduced forage production, overgrazing, and economic challenges for livestock producers. This study evaluates the economic feasibility of incorporating stocker cattle as a flexible drought management strategy under varying forage conditions across four Utah grazing locations: Park Valley, Nephi, Vernal, and Beaver. The Rangeland Analysis Platform (RAP) was used to estimate annual forage production and stocking rates from 2001 through 2025. Four stocking-rate scenarios (100%, 75%, 60%, and 50% cow–calf stocking rates) were evaluated using a Net Present Value (NPV) framework to compare the economic performance of traditional cow–calf operations with systems that incorporated stocker cattle to utilize excess forage.

Results indicate that reducing cow–calf stocking rates and incorporating stocker cattle generally improved long-term economic performance while increasing operational flexibility during drought years. The ideal stocking strategy varied by location because of differences in forage productivity. Park Valley produced the highest NPV under the 75% cow–calf scenario, while Nephi and Vernal performed best under the 60% scenario. Beaver, which had the lowest forage productivity, showed the highest NPV under the 50% scenario. These findings suggest that flexible grazing systems can improve ranch profitability and resilience by allowing producers to better match forage demand with annual forage availability while reducing the need for emergency herd liquidation during drought.

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