Declining Democracy Amid Historical Legacies: Democratization Across the Maghreb

Author

Jacob Sagers, Utah State University

Date of Award

5-2025

Degree Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Departmental Honors

Department

Political Science

Abstract

Institutions and security forces are vital in determining democratization’s success or failure, but how do they interact with civilians to counteract, or support, existing regimes? Hopes for a fourth wave of democratization were dismantled over the past decade as the Arab uprisings have had inconclusive results, posing a threat to the ideological basis for U.S. foreign policy and Western states' legitimacy. Broad economic and Western foreign policies applied worldwide over the past few decades have also been ineffective at supporting this process and producing sustainable democratic transitions. But what specifically about these factors in the Maghreb gave way to Tunisia’s success while Morocco and Algeria underwent limited reforms and authoritarian consolidation? Furthermore, what aspects of institutions and security forces influence governance, and how do colonial legacies perpetuate their power? I argue that institutions and colonial histories alter how security forces and mass mobilization interact to produce democratic consolidation throughout the Maghreb region after the 2011 Arab uprisings. I focus on three causal mechanisms: the power of a country’s military in politics, civilian support of a country’s governing institutions, and the structure of French colonial administrations to support these processes. Within these three mechanisms, I develop an Ordinary least squares model that suggests an association between higher support for democracy and increasing civilians’ trust in state institutions. Results suggest that building support for democracy at a grassroots level within foreign policy is the most effective way to increase the likelihood of democratization amid existing institutions.

Recommended Citation

Sagers, Jacob, "Declining Democracy Amid Historical Legacies: Democratization Across the Maghreb" (2025). Undergraduate Honors Capstone Projects. 1007.
https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/honors/1007