Date of Award

5-2025

Degree Type

Thesis

Degree Name

Departmental Honors

Department

Economics and Finance

Abstract

How does mindset shape sports performance? Using data from high school track and field 100- meter sprint times, I examine how exogenous psychological shocks—caused by running faster or slower than expected due to tailwinds or headwinds—influence subsequent athletic performance. By leveraging instrumental variable analysis and random wind variation, I isolate the purely psychological effects (referred to throughout this paper as “mindset effects”) of performance confidence. I parse out the sustained mindset effects, taking into account athlete-specific fixed effects, and estimate mindset-driven performance effects. In the discussion, I will explore “perceived self-efficacy” (PSE) as a potential mechanism by which these mindset effects affect an athlete’s performance. I find four main insights into how mindset effects have a sustained impact on athlete performance. First, both positive and negative mindset shocks improve subsequent performance. Second, negative mindset shocks are a stronger driver for improvement in the following race than positive shocks. Third, girls are more psychologically sensitive than boys to these shocks now and in the next race. Fourth, only girls show differential racial/ethnic subsequent performance variation due to mindset effects. In this paper, I will extricate the asymmetric differences in psychologically driven performance effects from head- vs tailwinds on athletes across race/ethnicity and gender. This research will shed light on broader psychological effects influencing athletic performance and contribute to the overarching study of behavioral psychology via econometric analysis.

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Faculty Mentor

Briggs Depew

Departmental Honors Advisor

Katarzyna Bilicka