Judging a Part by the Size of its Whole: The Category Size Bias in Probability Judgments

Authors

USU Jon M. Huntsman School of Business
Aaron R. Brough, Utah State University
Mathew S. Isaac, Seattle University

Files

Description

Consumers might be said to have a prediction addiction—they speculate about sports, politics, weather, stocks, sweepstakes, health, and relationships, to name just a few areas. What’s more, predictions often guide their decisions.For example, they may decide to carry an umbrella after considering the chance of rain, to invest after forecasting the stock market’s performance, or to marry after predicting the likelihood of marital bliss. With all this practice, one might expect consumers to be good at judging probability. However, their predictions are often wrong.

Publisher

Utah State University

Publication Date

3-28-2014

Keywords

prediction, probability judgments, size bias

Disciplines

Business

Recommended Citation

USU Jon M. Huntsman School of Business; Brough, Aaron R.; and Isaac, Mathew S., "Judging a Part by the Size of its Whole: The Category Size Bias in Probability Judgments" (2014). Jon M. Huntsman School of Business News Collection. 41.
https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/huntsman_news/41