The Predictive Validity of the GRE Across Graduate Outcomes: A Meta-Analysis of Trends Over Time

Authors

David F. Feldon, Utah State UniversityFollow
Kaylee Litson, Utah State UniversityFollow
Brinleigh Cahoon, Utah State University
Zhang Feng, Utah State University
Andrew Walker, Utah State UniversityFollow
Colby Tofel-Grehl, Utah State UniversityFollow

Document Type

Article

Journal/Book Title/Conference

The Journal of Higher Education

Author ORCID Identifier

David F. Feldon https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3268-5764

Kaylee Litson https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1296-4811

Zhang Feng https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4594-2627

Andrew Walker https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8693-9921

Colby Tofel-Grehl https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4270-4060

Publisher

Routledge

Publication Date

3-21-2023

First Page

1

Last Page

29

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Abstract

This meta-analysis assesses the predictive validity of the Graduate Record Examination (GRE) across outcome variables, including grade point average, for graduate students. In addition to aggregate effects, this paper also assessed changes in observed effects over time as related to increasing diversity in the graduate student population and as a function of gender and racial/ethnic composition of study samples. Framed using a lens of critical whiteness, this analysis examined n = 1,744 individual effects across k = 208 studies. Overall, 61.6% of reported effects were nonsignificant (i.e. no predictive value of GRE scores on student outcomes). Further, the magnitude of observed predictive relationships decreased significantly over time. The aggregate mean effect across all studies and outcomes was small, significant, and positive: GRE score predicted 2.25% of variance across measured outcomes, 4% of variance in overall GPA, and 2.56% of variance in first-year graduate GPA. Sample composition effects by race/ethnicity were notable but nonsignificant (p = .06), with increasing proportions of people of Color within a study sample associated with poorer predictive validity. Likewise, the magnitude of negative effects where lower GRE scores predicted stronger student outcomes increased from 0.16% of variance for all-white samples to 5.3% for samples comprised entirely of people of Color.

Recommended Citation

Feldon, David F., et al. "The Predictive Validity of the GRE Across Graduate Outcomes: A Meta-Analysis of Trends Over Time." The Journal of Higher Education, 21 Mar. 2023, https://doi.org/10.1080/00221546.2023.2187177.