Document Type

Article

Journal/Book Title/Conference

Journal of Earth Science and Engineering

Volume

4

Publication Date

2014

First Page

428

Last Page

437

Abstract

This paper summarizes research related to the 2012 record drought in the central United States conducted by members of the NEWS (NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) Energy and Water cycle Study) Working Group. Past drought patterns were analyzed for signal coherency with latest drought and the contribution of long-term trends in the Great Plains low-level jet, an important regional circulation feature of the spring rainy season in the Great Plains. Long-term changes in the seasonal transition from rainy spring into dry summer were also examined. Potential external forcing from radiative processes, soil-air interactions, and ocean teleconnections were assessed as contributors to the intensity of the drought. The atmospheric Rossby wave activity was found to be a potential source of predictability for the onset of drought. A probabilistic model was introduced and evaluated for its performance in predicting drought recovery in the Great Plains.

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