Verification of peak flow forecasts in the Colorado Basin
Location
Eccles Conference Center
Event Website
http://water.usu.edu/
Start Date
3-30-2011 11:05 AM
End Date
3-30-2011 11:10 AM
Description
Forecasts for peak streamflows from annual snow melt are widely used by emergency management, reservoir operators, and river recreationists in the Colorado and Great Basins. The Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC) has produced these forecasts for many years in the spring months leading up to the snowmelt. However, only recently has a systematic effort to verify these forecasts been undertaken. Historical forecasts were verified along with reforecasts from the River Forecast System to produce a suite of verification statistics for current forecast points. Preliminary results, although site specific, suggest that both forecasts and reforecast have better skill that climatology and that skill improves with lead time. The resulting analysis will be used to drive changes to the peak flow forecast program at the CBRFC. For example, observed forecast skill may be used together with stakeholder requirements to determine forecast issuance dates and forecast frequency. Results may also be used to validate new and existing forecast procedures, evaluate the validity of current and future forecast points, and provide future tools to stakeholders to evaluate forecast performance.
Verification of peak flow forecasts in the Colorado Basin
Eccles Conference Center
Forecasts for peak streamflows from annual snow melt are widely used by emergency management, reservoir operators, and river recreationists in the Colorado and Great Basins. The Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC) has produced these forecasts for many years in the spring months leading up to the snowmelt. However, only recently has a systematic effort to verify these forecasts been undertaken. Historical forecasts were verified along with reforecasts from the River Forecast System to produce a suite of verification statistics for current forecast points. Preliminary results, although site specific, suggest that both forecasts and reforecast have better skill that climatology and that skill improves with lead time. The resulting analysis will be used to drive changes to the peak flow forecast program at the CBRFC. For example, observed forecast skill may be used together with stakeholder requirements to determine forecast issuance dates and forecast frequency. Results may also be used to validate new and existing forecast procedures, evaluate the validity of current and future forecast points, and provide future tools to stakeholders to evaluate forecast performance.
https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/runoff/2011/Posters/20