Session
Session IX: Science and Exploration
Abstract
Reliable, repeatable Earthquake forecast is a subject surrounded by controversy and scepticism. What is clear, is that reliable forecast could be the single most effective tool for earthquake disaster management. Roughly a third of the world’s population live in areas that are at risk and, every year since the beginning of the twentieth century earthquakes have caused an average of 20,000 deaths. The economic loss in the 1995 Kobe, Japan earthquake was greater than US$100 billion . Substantial progress has been made on the development of methods for earthquake hazard analysis on a timescale of a few decades. However, the forecast of specific earthquakes on timescales of a few years to a few days is a difficult problem. It has been proposed that satellites and ground-based facilities may detect earthquake precursors in the ionosphere a few hours or days before the main shock. This hypothesis is now backed by a physical model, derived by the Russian Academy of Sciences from statist ical studies, and an understanding of the main morphological features of seismoionospheric precursors - which allows them to be separated from background ionospheric variability. The main problems now are lack of regular global data and limited funding for what is considered to be financially risky research. Low -cost, small satellites offer a solution to these problems. A 100 kg class SSTL enhanced microsatellite, carrying a RAS topside sounder and complimentary payload, will be used to make regular measurements over seismically active zones around the globe. The low cost of the spacecraft offers a financially low -risk approach to the next step in this invaluable research. The spacecraft will make ionospheric measurements for systematic research into the proposed precursors. The aims will be to confirm or refute the hypothesis; define their reliability and reproducibility; and enable further scientific understanding of their mechanisms. In addition, forecasting of the magnitude of the events, as well as an indication of the seismic centre may also be possible. These mission data should also lead to improved knowledge of the physics of earthquakes, improved accuracy for GPS-based navigation models, and could be used to study the reaction of the global ionosphere during magnetic storms and other solar-terrestrial events. The paper presents an overview of the scientific basis, goals, and proposed platform for this research mission.
Earthquake Forecast Science Research with a Small Satellite
Reliable, repeatable Earthquake forecast is a subject surrounded by controversy and scepticism. What is clear, is that reliable forecast could be the single most effective tool for earthquake disaster management. Roughly a third of the world’s population live in areas that are at risk and, every year since the beginning of the twentieth century earthquakes have caused an average of 20,000 deaths. The economic loss in the 1995 Kobe, Japan earthquake was greater than US$100 billion . Substantial progress has been made on the development of methods for earthquake hazard analysis on a timescale of a few decades. However, the forecast of specific earthquakes on timescales of a few years to a few days is a difficult problem. It has been proposed that satellites and ground-based facilities may detect earthquake precursors in the ionosphere a few hours or days before the main shock. This hypothesis is now backed by a physical model, derived by the Russian Academy of Sciences from statist ical studies, and an understanding of the main morphological features of seismoionospheric precursors - which allows them to be separated from background ionospheric variability. The main problems now are lack of regular global data and limited funding for what is considered to be financially risky research. Low -cost, small satellites offer a solution to these problems. A 100 kg class SSTL enhanced microsatellite, carrying a RAS topside sounder and complimentary payload, will be used to make regular measurements over seismically active zones around the globe. The low cost of the spacecraft offers a financially low -risk approach to the next step in this invaluable research. The spacecraft will make ionospheric measurements for systematic research into the proposed precursors. The aims will be to confirm or refute the hypothesis; define their reliability and reproducibility; and enable further scientific understanding of their mechanisms. In addition, forecasting of the magnitude of the events, as well as an indication of the seismic centre may also be possible. These mission data should also lead to improved knowledge of the physics of earthquakes, improved accuracy for GPS-based navigation models, and could be used to study the reaction of the global ionosphere during magnetic storms and other solar-terrestrial events. The paper presents an overview of the scientific basis, goals, and proposed platform for this research mission.
