Added Value From 576 Years of Tree-ring Records in the Prediction of the Great Salt Lake Level

Authors

Robert R. Gillies, Utah State UniversityFollow
Oi-Yu Chung, Utah State University
Shih-Yu (Simon) Wang, Utah State UniversityFollow
R. Justin DeRose, U.S. Forest Service
Yan Sun, Utah State University

Document Type

Article

Journal/Book Title/Conference

Journal of Hydrology

Volume

529

Publisher

Elsevier

Publication Date

9-2015

First Page

962

Last Page

968

Abstract

Predicting lake level fluctuations of the Great Salt Lake (GSL) in Utah – the largest terminal salt-water lake in the Western Hemisphere – is critical from many perspectives. The GSL integrates both climate and hydrological variations within the region and is particularly sensitive to low-frequency climate cycles. Since most hydroclimate variable records cover less than a century, forecasting the predominant yet under-represented decadal variability of the GSL level with such relatively short instrumental records poses a challenge. To overcome data limitations, this study assesses two options: (1) developing a model using the observational GSL elevation record of 137 years to predict itself; (2) incorporating the recently reconstructed GSL elevation that utilized 576 years worth of tree-ring records into the predictive model. It was found that the statistical models that combined the tree-ring reconstructed data with the observed data outperformed those that did not, in terms of reducing the root mean squared errors. Such predictive models can serve as a means toward practical water risk management.

Recommended Citation

Gillies, Robert R.; Chung, Oi-Yu; Wang, Shih-Yu (Simon); DeRose, R. Justin; and Sun, Yan, "Added Value From 576 Years of Tree-ring Records in the Prediction of the Great Salt Lake Level" (2015). Wasatch Dendroclimatology Research. Paper 9.
https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/wadr/9