A chance-constrained separable programming model of water allocations between agriculture and energy production was developed in order to examine the effect of the variability of water supplies in Utah. Using an incomplete gamma function, based on method of moments estimation of parameters, the water flows at 85, 90, and 95 percent probabilities of occurence were generated. These flows were then used as constraints in the allocation model. Results indicate that water quality could be a more significant constraint on irrigated agriculture than water quantity in the face of large scale energy development, and the variability of water availability alone is likely not to be a significant factor in economic growth in Utah.
Keith, John E.; Gerstl, Gustavo A. Martinez; Narayanan, Rangesan; and Snyder, Donald L., "A Chance-Constrained Programming Model of Water Allocations in Utah" (1982). Reports. Paper 277.