Document Type


Publication Date

January 1981


The techniques of operational hydrology, employing an autoregrssive moving average (ARMA (1,0) model were used to replicate historical patterns of streamflow into, precipitation on, and evaporation from the Great Salt Lake. The results were combined with a lake water balance model to simulate lake stage sequences beginning with known initial conditions and extending up to 125 years into the future and used to generate probability distributions for future lake stages. Starting with a spring 1980 high stage of 4200.45 ft msl, the best estimate is that the 1981 spring high will be 4200.19, but there is one change in four that it will reach 4200.74 and one in ten that it will research 4201.24. Over the long run, an average spring high of 4195.20 is forecast with one year in a hundred reaching as high as 4205.21 and one year in a hundred with a pring high only 4185.19 and dropping as low as 4183.5. Followup annual forecast updates will be published about each July 1.