Major Axes of Variation in Tree Demography Across Global Forests

Authors

• Melina de Souza Leite, University of São PauloFollow
• Sean M. McMahon, Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute
• Paulo Inácio Prado, University of São Paulo
• Stuart J. Davies, Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute
• Alexandre Adalardo de Oliveira, University of São Paulo
• Hannes P. De Deurwaerder, Princeton University
• Salomón Aguilar, Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute
• Kristina J. Anderson-Teixeira, Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute
• Nurfarah Aqilah, Forest Research Institute Malaysia
• Norman A. Bourg, Smithsonian National Zoo & Conservation Biology Institute
• Warren Y. Brockelman, National Biobank of Thailand
• Nicolas Castaño, Instituto SINCHI
• Chia-Hao Chang-Yang, National Sun Yat-Sen University
• Yu-Yun Chen, National Dong Hwa University
• George Chuyong, University of Buea
• Keith Clay, Tulane University
• Álvaro Duque, Universidad Nacional de Colombia Sede Medellín
• Sisira Ediriweera, Uva Wellassa University
• Corneille E. N. Ewango, Université de Kisangani
• Gregory Gilbert, University of California
• I. A. U. N. Gunatilleke, University of Peradeniya
• C. V. S. Gunatilleke, University of Peradeniya
• Robert Howe, University of Wisconsin-Green Bay
• Walter Huaraca Huasco, University of Oxford
• Akira Itoh, Osaka City University
• Daniel J. Johnson, University of Florida
• David Kenfack, Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute
• Kamil Král, Silva Tarouca Research Institute
• Yao Tze Leong, Forest Research Institute Malaysia
• James A. Lutz, Utah State UniversityFollow
• Jean-Remy Makana, Universite de Kisangani
• Yadvinder Malhi, University of Oxford
• William J. McShea, Conservation Ecology Center, Smithsonian National Zoo & Conservation Biology Institute
• Mohizah Mohamad, Forest Department Sarawak
• Musalmah Nasardin, Forest Research Institute Malaysia
• Anuttara Nathalang, National Biobank of Thailand
• Geoffrey Parker, Smithsonian Environmental Research Center
• Renan Parmigiani, University of São Paulo
• Rolando Pérez, Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute
• Richard P. Phillips, Indiana University
• Pavel Šamonil, Silva Tarouca Research Institute
• I-Fang Sun, National Dong Hwa University
• Sylvester Tan, Forest Department Sarawak
• Duncan Thomas, Washington State University
• Jill Thompson, UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
• María Uriarte, Columbia University
• Amy Wolf, University of Wisconsin-Green Bay
• Jess Zimmerman, University of Puerto Rico
• Daniel Zuleta, Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute
• Marco D. Visser, Leiden UniversityFollow
• Lisa Hülsmann, University of Bayreuth

Document Type

Article

Journal/Book Title/Conference

Ecography

Author ORCID Identifier

Melina de Souza Leite https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0505-0667

Sean M. McMahon https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8302-6908

Paulo Inácio Prado https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7174-5005

Hannes P. De Deurwaerder https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9287-2062

Kristina J. Anderson-Teixeira https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8461-9713

Norman A. Bourg https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7443-1992

Warren Y. Brockelman https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8649-1984

Nicolas Castaño https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2892-1074

Chia-Hao Chang-Yang https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3635-4946

Yu-Yun Chen https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8760-8649

George Chuyong https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0235-211X

I. A. U. N. Gunatilleke https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3271-2945

Walter Huaraca Huasco https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5300-4986

Akira Itoh https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2493-1681

Daniel J. Johnson https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8585-2143

David Kenfack https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8208-3388

Kamil Král https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3848-2119

Yao Tze Leong https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5274-1623

James A. Lutz https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2560-0710

Jean-Remy Makana https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6006-2938

Yadvinder Malhi https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3503-4783

William J. McShea https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8102-0200

Musalmah Nasardin https://orcid.org/0009-0000-2512-2993

Anuttara Nathalang https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2780-0289

Renan Parmigiani https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2055-2393

Richard P. Phillips https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1345-4138

Pavel Šamonil https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7722-8797

I-Fang Sun https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9749-8324

Jill Thompson https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4370-2593

Daniel Zuleta https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9832-6188

Marco D. Visser https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1200-0852

Lisa Hülsmann https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4252-2715

Volume

2024

Issue

6

Publisher

Wiley-Blackwell Publishing, Inc.

Publication Date

5-6-2024

Journal Article Version

Version of Record

First Page

1

Last Page

14

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Abstract

The future trajectory of global forests is closely intertwined with tree demography, and a major fundamental goal in ecology is to understand the key mechanisms governing spatio-temporal patterns in tree population dynamics. While previous research has made substantial progress in identifying the mechanisms individually, their relative importance among forests remains unclear mainly due to practical limitations. One approach to overcome these limitations is to group mechanisms according to their shared effects on the variability of tree vital rates and quantify patterns therein. We developed a conceptual and statistical framework (variance partitioning of Bayesian multilevel models) that attributes the variability in tree growth, mortality, and recruitment to variation in species, space, and time, and their interactions – categories we refer to as organising principles (OPs). We applied the framework to data from 21 forest plots covering more than 2.9 million trees of approximately 6500 species. We found that differences among species, the species OP, proved a major source of variability in tree vital rates, explaining 28–33% of demographic variance alone, and 14–17% in interaction with space, totalling 40–43%. Our results support the hypothesis that the range of vital rates is similar across global forests. However, the average variability among species declined with species richness, indicating that diverse forests featured smaller interspecific differences in vital rates. Moreover, decomposing the variance in vital rates into the proposed OPs showed the importance of unexplained variability, which includes individual variation, in tree demography. A focus on how demographic variance is organized in forests can facilitate the construction of more targeted models with clearer expectations of which covariates might drive a vital rate. This study therefore highlights the most promising avenues for future research, both in terms of understanding the relative contributions of groups of mechanisms to forest demography and diversity, and for improving projections of forest ecosystems.

Recommended Citation

Leite, M.d.S., McMahon, S.M., Prado, P.I., Davies, S.J., Oliveira, A.A.d., De Deurwaerder, H.P., Aguilar, S., Anderson-Teixeira, K.J., Aqilah, N., Bourg, N.A., Brockelman, W.Y., Castaño, N., Chang-Yang, C.-H., Chen, Y.-Y., Chuyong, G., Clay, K., Duque, Á., Ediriweera, S., Ewango, C.E.N., Gilbert, G., Gunatilleke, I.A.U.N., Gunatilleke, C.V.S., Howe, R., Huasco, W.H., Itoh, A., Johnson, D.J., Kenfack, D., Král, K., Leong, Y.T., Lutz, J.A., Makana, J.-R., Malhi, Y., McShea, W.J., Mohamad, M., Nasardin, M., Nathalang, A., Parker, G., Parmigiani, R., Pérez, R., Phillips, R.P., Šamonil, P., Sun, I.-F., Tan, S., Thomas, D., Thompson, J., Uriarte, M., Wolf, A., Zimmerman, J., Zuleta, D., Visser, M.D. and Hülsmann, L. (2024), Major axes of variation in tree demography across global forests. Ecography, 2024: e07187. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.07187