Document Type
Article
Journal/Book Title/Conference
Nature Communications
Author ORCID Identifier
Sean A. Parks https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2982-5255
Christopher H. Guiterman https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9706-9332
Ellis Q. Margolis https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0595-9005
John T. Abatzoglou https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7599-9750
Charles W. Lafon https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7997-6935
Cameron E. Naficy https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5733-1300
Marc-André Parisien https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8158-7434
Jeanne Portier https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9706-5155
A. Park Williams https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8176-8166
Volume
16
Publisher
Nature Portfolio
Publication Date
2-10-2025
Journal Article Version
Version of Record
First Page
1
Last Page
13
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0 License.
Abstract
Rapid increases in wildfire area burned across North American forests pose novel challenges for managers and society. Increasing area burned raises questions about whether, and to what degree, contemporary fire regimes (1984–2022) are still departed from historical fire regimes (pre-1880). We use the North American tree-ring fire-scar network (NAFSN), a multi-century record comprising > 1800 fire-scar sites spanning diverse forest types, and contemporary fire perimeters to ask whether there is a contemporary fire surplus or fire deficit, and whether recent fire years are unprecedented relative to historical fire regimes. Our results indicate, despite increasing area burned in recent decades, that a widespread fire deficit persists across a range of forest types and recent years with exceptionally high area burned are not unprecedented when considering the multi-century perspective offered by fire-scarred trees. For example, ‘record’ contemporary fire years such as 2020 burned 6% of NAFSN sites—the historical average—well below the historical maximum of 29% sites that burned in 1748. Although contemporary fire extent is not unprecedented across many North American forests, there is abundant evidence that unprecedented contemporary fire severity is driving forest loss in many ecosystems and adversely impacting human lives, infrastructure, and water supplies.
Recommended Citation
Parks, S.A., Guiterman, C.H., Margolis, E.Q. et al. A fire deficit persists across diverse North American forests despite recent increases in area burned. Nat Commun 16, 1493 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-56333-8