Forecasting the spread of raccoon rabies using a purpose-specific group decisionmaking process

Authors

Aaron M. Anderson, Wildlife Services’ National Wildlife Research CenterFollow
Stephanie A. Shwiff, Wildlife Services’ National Wildlife Research Center
Richard B. Chipman, Wildlife Services’ National Wildlife Research Center
Todd Atwood, Wildlife Services’ National Wildlife Research Center
Tyler Cozzens, Wildlife Services’ National Wildlife Research Center
Frank Fillo, Policy and Program Development
Robert Hale, Wildlife Services’ National Wildlife Research Center
Brody Hatch, Wildlife Services’ National Wildlife Research Center
Joanne Maki, Merial Limited
Olin E. Rhodes, Wildlife Services’ National Wildlife Research Center
Erin E. Rees, Université de Montréal
Charles E. Rupprecht, Global Alliance for Rabies Control
Rowland Tinline, Queen's University
Kurt C. VerCauteren, Wildlife Services' National Wildlife Research Venter
Dennis Slate, Wildlife Services' National Rabies Management Program

Abstract

The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and USDA Wildlife Services (WS) have been involved in an oral rabies vaccination (ORV) program for raccoons (Procyon lotor) that has slowed the westward spread of raccoon rabies. The objective of this study was to forecast the spread of the disease if an ORV zone was not maintained. A group decision-making process was designed to address the forecasting problem and was implemented using a group of 15 experts and 4 support personnel at a meeting at the USDA National Wildlife Research Center. Ten expansion regions were constructed that described the spread of disease at 2-year intervals. This forecast may provide for more accurate cost-benefit analysis of the ORV barrier.

Recommended Citation

Anderson, Aaron M.; Shwiff, Stephanie A.; Chipman, Richard B.; Atwood, Todd; Cozzens, Tyler; Fillo, Frank; Hale, Robert; Hatch, Brody; Maki, Joanne; Rhodes, Olin E.; Rees, Erin E.; Rupprecht, Charles E.; Tinline, Rowland; VerCauteren, Kurt C.; and Slate, Dennis (2014) "Forecasting the spread of raccoon rabies using a purpose-specific group decisionmaking process," Human–Wildlife Interactions: Vol. 8: Iss. 1, Article 14.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.26077/an27-z240
Available at: https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/hwi/vol8/iss1/14